Background Information
Lake Michigan is one of the five Great Lakes of North America and the only one in the mid-western United States. It is the second-largest of the Great Lakes by volume and third-largest by surface area, after Lake Superior and Lake Huron. Located between the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, it is the only Great Lake to be entirely within the United States.
Temperatures in the region of Lake Michigan can vary from season to season with the hottest months usually being July and August reaching over 30 degrees Celsius and the coldest months usually in February with temperatures dropping below 0 degrees Celsius.
Lake Michigan’s Freezing Data
Historically, the lake has had an average freeze time of 3-6 weeks, but the actual time of freezing and thawing in recent years has been considerably earlier due to climate change. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), the lake stayed frozen over all winter in 2008-09, while in 2019-20, the lake remained open until it eventually froze over in February of 2021.
The Lake has also seen considerable increases in late ice formation since the NWS began tracking ice in the lake in the late 1820s. In 2018-19, the lake stayed frozen until late April, while in 2019-20 it stayed frozen until late May.
The NWS also notes that ice on the lake can be up to three feet thick. This can leave substantial amounts of the lake surface covered for long periods of time and can impact local fishing and leisure activities.
Recent Data
As of April 2021, the lake is not currently frozen over, but parts of the lake have seen thin ice formation in recent weeks as temperatures have started to drop.
The NWS notes that freeze forecasts are difficult to make because of the variability in the lake’s temperature and the need to take into account wind speed, water temperature and air temperature.
However, the NWS has said that current forecasts indicate that there is a strong likelihood of the lake freezing over earlier than usual this year. The agency said that due to the warm temperatures this winter, it is likely that the ice cover on the lake will form earlier than normal, likely before the end of April.
Experts Perspectives
Experts have said that recent warm winters have made it more likely for Lake Michigan to freeze over earlier than expected, but caution that the effects of climate change are unpredictable.
Michal Keller, a marine biologist and professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said that climate change “is making it more likely that the lake could freeze over, but only for part of the year”. She added that the trend was “likely to continue in the future, although predicting when the lake will freeze over is difficult.”
Tim Kline, a climatologist and professor at Michigan State University, said that the freezing of the lake is “highly variable from year to year and depends on a combination of factors such as air temperature, wind speed and lake temperature.” He added that although it is possible that Lake Michigan could freeze over early this year, “it is not a sure thing as the temperatures could still be too warm to allow significant ice formation”.
Insights and Analysis
It is clear that recent warm winters in the mid-west have made it more likely for the lake to freeze over earlier than expected. However, there is considerable variability in the timing of freeze-over and experts warn that the effects of climate change are unpredictable.
Despite this, there is a strong likelihood that Lake Michigan will freeze over before the end of April 2021. Ice formation on the lake can be up to three feet thick and has historically been around for 3-6 weeks, although this has been shorter in recent years.
The effects of this freeze-over can be significant for the region, impacting local fishing and leisure activities, and so it is important that people stay informed of the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service.
Impact on Local Economies
The freeze-over of Lake Michigan can have significant implications for local economies. As the lake is a popular destination for tourism and recreation, the freeze-over can reduce the number of visitors to the region, impacting local businesses that rely on the influx of tourists.
Moreover, parts of the region are heavily reliant on fishing, and the freeze-over can cause disruption for local fishermen and impact commercial fisheries.
Local governments have taken steps to mitigate the impacts of freeze-over by providing funding for businesses to shift to other activities, particularly in tourism and recreation. In addition, local governments are working to promote activities that are not weather dependent, such as cultural and historic attractions.
Environmentally Friendly Activities
Along with the disruption caused by the freeze-over of Lake Michigan, there can also be opportunities for environmentally friendly activities. During the winter months, when the lake is frozen over, there are a range of activities that people can do that do not involve the use of motorised vessels.
These activities can include cross-country skiing, ice fishing, ice skating, and snowmobiling. These activities can provide an opportunity to enjoy the beauty of the lake without having a negative impact on the environment or compromising safety.
Moreover, it is important that people take steps to ensure that their activities do not cause damage to the lake’s ecosystem. For example, people should not leave rubbish on the ice, as this can harm wildlife.
Safety Considerations
When participating in activities on Lake Michigan during the winter months, it is important that people stay safe and aware of the risks associated with the lake and the weather conditions. People should ensure that they are always wearing the appropriate clothing and that they inform their families and friends of their plans.
People should also be aware of the ice thickness, as thinner ice can be more prone to cracks and crevices which can cause the surface to give way. It is important to check the water depth before venturing onto the ice and to take precautions to avoid accidents.
In addition, people should be aware of changing weather conditions, as these can affect the safety of the lake. It is important to check local forecasts and be prepared to change plans if conditions become unpredictable.
Conclusion
Lake Michigan is not currently frozen over, but forecasts indicate that there is a strong likelihood of it freezing over earlier than usual this year. This freeze-over can have significant implications for local economies and activities around the lake, and it is important that people stay informed of the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service.
Moreover, there can be opportunities for environmentally friendly activities, such as skiing and ice skating, during the frozen months and it is important to take steps to ensure that these do not cause any harm to the lake’s ecosystem. Safety should also be a priority, with people taking precautions to ensure that they are always dressed appropriately and aware of the changing weather conditions.
